In this episode of The Glass Half Full, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, tackle the question on every investor’s mind: Is this 1999 all over again?
The numbers are hard to ignore. The semiconductor index is up 57% year to date. The Nasdaq 100 gained 27% in just 28 days. Some individual tech companies are up triple and even quadruple digits on the year. It looks a lot like the late 1990s tech mania, but Ryan and Sonu argue the underlying story is fundamentally different.
Sonu breaks down the key distinction. In 1999, soaring valuations were built on promises. Today, the leaders are leading on the back of real earnings, real revenues, and real margin expansion driven by an enormous wave of AI-related capital expenditures. One company’s spending, as Sonu puts it, is another company’s revenue and profits, and that is what’s moving stock prices.
Ryan and Sonu also make the case for staying diversified inside a global bull market. Emerging markets are up more than 20% year-to-date, the MSCI South Korea index has surged 84%, and Taiwan is up 48%, though both caution that much of that international outperformance is still a semiconductor story at its core. The real diversification opportunity may lie in sectors like energy, industrials, and materials, along with alternative diversifiers like commodities and managed futures that have held up better than bonds in an inflationary growth environment.
The episode closes with a practical reminder that has defined this series from the start: Investors make their worst decisions at the worst possible times. Chasing tech at these levels or abandoning beaten-down financials may feel right, but history says otherwise.
Key Takeaways
- The Nasdaq 100 gained approximately 27% in just 28 days, with individual semiconductor and storage names up triple and quadruple digits year to date.
- Unlike 1999, today’s tech leaders are delivering real earnings and margin expansion, not speculative promises, making a repeat of the dot-com crash unlikely.
- Nominal GDP growth is running near 6%, similar to 1997-99 levels, but today’s growth is more inflation-driven than real, with adjusted real GDP growth closer to 2%.
- Emerging markets are up more than 20% year-to-date, but investors diversifying globally should note that South Korea’a and Taiwan’s outperformance is still largely a chip story.
- Energy, industrials, commodities, and managed futures may offer more genuine diversification than traditional bonds in the current inflationary growth environment.
Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and the 1999 Question
1:04 — AI Spending and Why Tech Leads
3:26 — Don’t Chase Winners or Dump Losers
4:27 — Global Diversification Isn’t Always Different
6:04 — Inflation, Energy, and New Diversifiers
9:29 — So, Are We Repeating 1999?
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
The views stated in this podcast are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, or CWM, LLC. and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Wealth Services LLC.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Please note: Cetera Wealth Services, LLC is not registered to offer direct investments into commodities or futures. Instead, we provide access to this asset class via mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the stocks of associated companies. Investments in commodities may be affected by the overall market movements, changes in interest rates and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Commodities are volatile investments and should form only a small part of a diversified portfolio. An investment in commodities may not be suitable for all investors.
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